Friday, February 12, 2010

New US Afghan policy will have to traverse a bumpy road

Asif Haroon Raja

Afghanistan is under illegal occupation of US-NATO forces since November 2001. So far occupation forces have been unable to achieve any of the professed objectives. These include capturing Osama Bin Laden dead or alive, defeating and destroying Al-Qaeda, liberation of Afghans from the cruel clutches of Taliban, introducing US model democracy, ushering in modernism and prosperity and radically improving the living conditions of Afghans. Eight years have lapsed and Osama is still untraceable. No one knows where he is and whether he is dead or alive. Utter helplessness of the sole super power and the developed world has turned Osama into a legendary figure and he is seen as a hero among the Islamists the world over.

Al-Qaeda, a small and insignificant entity strictly confined to Afghanistan has become robust and turned into an international organization. Democracy is a far cry since the country is ruled by an American stooge who is highly unpopular among Afghans. Trigger happy American forces are not seen as liberators but as fiends carrying deep-seated hatred for Muslims and their faith and deriving sadistic pleasure in killing Muslims. Several social evils that had been eliminated by the Taliban during their short rule from 1996 to 2001 have reappeared in a big way. These include corruption, nepotism, injustice, drug addiction and smuggling, immorality, ethnicity and sectarianism, insecurity of life, honor and property. War lords reign supreme. The Pashtuns being in great majority stand isolated and marginalized while minority non-Pashtuns rule the roost. Northern Alliance rulers in connivance with USA are persistently hounding and persecuting the Pashtuns on suspicion of being aligned with Taliban who do not deserve to live and for whom there is no scope for mercy since they are aligned with most hated Al-Qaeda. As a consequence the plight of Afghan Pashtuns has become appalling.

George W. Bush Administration made a complete mess in Afghanistan and Iraq during its inglorious eight year rule. By mid 2008, there was consensus in USA that the military should pull out of Iraq and reinforce Afghanistan since it was home to Al-Qaeda. By then it had become evident that Iraqi adventure was a mistake and had been undertaken on trumped up threat of WMDs and that Iraq posed no threat to US homeland. By mid 2008, the neo-cons started to propagate that neither Iraq nor Afghanistan posed any threat to western world. In their view nuclear Muslim Pakistan was the chief threat and should have been targeted at the outset. This is exactly what India had strongly advised to Bush Administration soon after 9/11. With this change in tune, Washington became highly aggressive towards Pakistan and FATA as a possible target figured up. All the prospective presidential candidates in USA including Obama used highly offensive language against Pakistan and this tirade continued even after Obama got elected.

Bush handed over the baton to Obama and gave a false impression as if the US had achieved victory in Iraq. In order to turn the tide in its favor in Afghanistan, new Af-Pak policy based on troop surge was announced in March 2009 by Obama Administration. 18000 troops were shifted from Iraq to Afghanistan to break the rising power of Al-Qaeda-Taliban nexus. Obama thus renewed his predecessor’s flawed policies with renewed vigor. Af-Pak was conceived since many top US leaders saw Afghanistan and Pakistan as a single entity and desired merger of Pashtuns areas into one unit of Pakhtunistan.

In May Obama sacked Gen David McKiernan and replaced him with Gen Stanley McChrystal. He and Gen David Petraeus viewed as counter insurgency experts and victors of Iraq were given responsibility to stabilize Afghanistan by repeating their success story in Fallujah and Ambar provinces of Iraq through troop surge and pitching Sunnis against Al-Qaeda. Gen Chrystal was lionized and sold to American public as a genius and a “Zen warrior”, who would up turn the fortunes of US military in Afghanistan.

Having failed to draw a wedge between Taliban and al-Qaeda and to divide Taliban between ‘reconcilable’ and ‘irreconcilable’, so as to pitch one against the other, it was decided to launch a strong operation in Helmand in July. High hopes were pinned on this operation that it would also achieve its military goals as in the case of Operation Rah-e-Rast in Malakand-Swat. It was also intended to push out militants into Pashtun districts of Balochistan, destabilize the peaceful region and subsequently declare that Afghan Shura had shifted to Quetta. IGFC Balochistan Maj Gen Salim Nawaz reacted fast and deployed extra troops along the border to prevent any inflow. Afghan Taliban after inflicting very heavy casualties on US-UK troops and taking the steam out of overly hyped operation Helmand, launched a daring raid on two outposts in Nuristan province in October killing nine US soldiers and dozens of ANA soldiers. Over 30 ANA officers and men were also abducted and huge stocks of arms and rations captured from the abandoned posts. Subsequently, series of attacks were carried out in the last quarter of 2009 on NATO bases across southeastern provinces of Khost, Paktia and Paktika.

Rapid successes by Taliban created panic and forced Gen McChrystal to hurriedly vacate all forward posts in southern and eastern Afghanistan to relocate the pulled out troops in main population centres. He felt content in adopting bunkered strategy since it considerably reduced the risk of casualties. In other words he changed the overall military posture from forward to rearward and gave up territory without a fight. Ignoring its own defeatist strategy, the US kept pressing Pakistan to tackle both Hakimullah in South Waziristan (SW) and Sirajuddin Haqqani network with its alleged fallback position in North Waziristan simultaneously but Pak Army maintained its righteous stance of opting for mother of all battles in SW.

The US military change in posture in Afghanistan somehow coincided with Operation Rah-e-Nijat launched by Pak Army in SW on 17 October. It not only created space for Pak Taliban to operate freely across the border to find sanctuary but also allowed freedom of action to Afghan Taliban to come to aid beleaguered TTP. It was interpreted in Pakistan as a willful act to undermine the efforts of Pak Army. If true, US military failed to provoke Afghan Taliban to rush to the aid of beleaguered Pak Taliban in SW caught in the juggernaut of Pak Army. They acted wisely by deciding not to jump into the boiling cauldron of SW where Pak Army had turned the corner and was in good position to deal with external interference.

Reverses on battlefronts coupled with fallout effects of fraudulent presidential elections intended to bolster flagging credibility of Karzai alarmed Gen McChrystal and he put in an emergent bid for additional troops to save the situation. Although Obama reluctantly sanctioned 30,000 troops, however, the fast deteriorating security situation compelled policy makers in Washington to review their Afghan policy. It has now been decided to negotiate with the Taliban and lure them to share power. It is a huge comedown from the belligerent policy so far followed by USA. The change is from use of force only to application of combination of force and political instruments. The US intends to pump in money and entice the moderates among the Taliban as well as the Pashtuns in order to isolate Al-Qaeda and hardcore Taliban under Mullah Omar and is quite optimistic about its new reintegration policy which has also been endorsed by participants of London Conference. With so many players having diverse interests in Afghanistan, the road ahead will be full of bumps. Pakistan should tread its steps wisely and prudently without trying to become the main power broker. Afghanistan has suffered for too long and it deserves peace, stability and prosperity.

The writer is a retired Brig and a defence and security analyst.

The US finding itself on the horns of a dilemma in Afghanistan

Asif Haroon Raja

The new reintegration US plan hinges on winning over moderate Taliban which in their view form 70% of total fighters. Their supposed success with some of the former Taliban officials who had worked under Mullah Omar has led them to believe that with their help they would be able to wean away the majority and isolate hardcore Taliban. $1.5 billion has been pledged to woo the reconcilable. Only the reconcilable who will renounce militancy, surrender arms and cut off links with Al-Qaeda and Mullah Omar led hardliners would stand qualified. This kind of effort was made in the past as well in which Saudi leadership was asked to play a role to bring the reconcilable closer to Karzai regime. Meeting of some of the Taliban leaders with Saudi officials, such as Wakil Ahmed Mutawakil, M. Musa Hotal, Abdul Hakim Munib, Faiz M. Faizan and Shams-us-Safa, led to a misplaced belief that a breakthrough had been achieved. (The five have now been removed from the blacklist of UNSC). However, owing to impractical preconditions, Saudi initiative fizzled out. Saudis desired detachment of Taliban from Al-Qaeda rather than dividing the Taliban. Karzai on several occasions expressed his eagerness to meet Omar and proposed a meeting at any venue suiting him or at Kabul assuring him full security. His overtures were brushed aside since he is seen by Taliban Shura as an American puppet whose writ doesn’t extend beyond his palace and whose security is dependent upon American guards.

During the recent London conference held on 28 January to find a solution to Afghan tangle, Karzai made an offer to negotiate with the Taliban and to re-integrate them. He once again sought Saudi mediation. In response to the preconditions put forth by the participants, Taliban Shura put forward its own points. These are: release of all Taliban prisoners languishing in different jails; clearance of all 144 Taliban officials from the blacklist of UNSC and canceling induction of additional troops. They have not addressed Karzai for they know he is powerless.

The US is finding itself on the horns of a dilemma. It knows it will not be able to defeat Taliban and Al-Qaeda comprehensively in the foreseeable future but is desperate to achieve some sort of moral if not physical victory and return home in next 2-3 years timeframe honorably. It also knows that Karzai led regime propped up by Washington through fraudulent election and Afghan security forces are not in a position to handle the situation independently after the withdrawal of coalition forces. It acknowledges that the Taliban are a force to reckon with; they can neither be wished away nor can their return to power blocked. Eight years of sustained efforts have failed to weaken their fighting ability, their resolve and unity. Taliban-Al-Qaeda nexus remain intact. Afghan Shura led by Mullah Omar continues to hold undiminished sway over the Taliban movement.

Mullah Omar and his Shura operate from unknown location (s) since November 2001. None has seen him or any of his top confidantes despite the man hunt. Unlike mixed reports about Osama bin Laden whether he is dead or alive, no news of his death have ever been circulated which implies he is functional. Afghans have seen the real faces of their rulers and none among them ever caught their imaginations and inspired them. Mullah Omar stands tall among the whole lot because of his personal conduct based on justice, honesty and piety, and the way he restored stability, security and social order during his five-year rule under trying conditions. The up righteous and principled stand that he took to protect his guest under the tradition of Pasthunwali upgraded his esteem and respect in the eyes of Afghans sky high. Even leaders of TTP have sworn allegiance to him and see him as Ameer-ul-Momineen. His resilience to withstand the onslaught of US led allied forces and his leadership qualities to recapture lost ground and restore the Taliban movement further boosted his image. He is now seen by the Afghan Pashtuns as the only hope to rid the country from foreign occupation and to once again regain stability.

While the popularity of Mullah Omar has not dented, Americans have lost their image and credibility due to their barbaric and unjust practices. Casualties of occupation troops have begun to accelerate from 2009 onwards and territory is fast slipping out of their hands as more and more territory is coming under the influence of Taliban. Low morale, depression and homesickness among ISAF soldiers coupled with vociferous demands from USA and western countries to wind up the fruitless war are other factors which are haunting US leaders. Successes achieved by Pak Army suffering from paucity of resources as compared with US-NATO forces enjoying all tactical, operational, technical and logistical advantages also disturb them since it is now becoming increasingly difficult to hide their failures by blaming Pakistan. US eagerness to negotiate with the Taliban makes its position difficult to restrain Pakistan from maintaining contacts with them. In the face of belligerent and uncompromising attitude of Indian leaders towards Pakistan and exposure of its clandestine activities in Balochistan, FATA and Swat, US can no longer press Pakistan to render its eastern border naked and shift bulk of forces towards western border where Pak Army has stabilized the situation to quite an extent and the TTP is in disarray.

Since the Taliban and al-Qaeda have been demonized so extensively, it has become difficult to negotiate with any of the two entities with an open and free mind. Neither the US can afford to abandon in haste as it had done in 1990 since it would open the gates for the Taliban to retake power without much ado, thereby rendering their massive investments and human losses end in smoke. This for sure would ignite furor in USA and western countries and demand for a probe and accountability would intensify. Anti-Americanism would peak in the western world as well. Return of Taliban to power would give heart to Islamic movements raging in several Muslim countries and future of secular governments supported by USA would become wobbly.

The stakes being too high, the US would therefore not opt for the safest option of talking to Taliban without preconditions but would opt for next best to divide Taliban, isolate hardcore Taliban and al-Qaeda, launch ruthless operations against strongholds of Taliban in southern and southeastern Afghanistan to regain lost space and then negotiate from position of strength. Efforts to entice reconcilable Pashtuns and Taliban have already begun with the help of few former officials of Mullah Omar regime. Shinwari tribe in Nangahar province has been approached and some headway made. $500 million has been placed at the disposal of Karzai to buy off loyalties of moderates.

US leadership must listen to the voice of American people who want US soldiers to return to their homes. It is regrettable that instead of respecting their sentiments, Gen McChrystal is feverishly planning a massive offensive in Helmand next week amidst snowfall forcing the unfortunate residents of the province to leave their homes and hearths in inclement weather. Having suffered big reverses in July offensive in Helmand, he is desperate to build up his badly bruised image at the cost of people of Afghanistan and his troops. It implies the US is refusing to learn from history and is bent upon winning over Afghan Pashtuns through policy of shock and awe. Taliban have not got over awed and have vowed to fight back with all their strength. It is however to be seen whether the Taliban would like to get involved in pitched battles against overwhelming numerical and technological superiority of coalition forces. Moreover, while the US is pushed for time the other side is not and would like to buy time. The US should strive to leave behind good memories and not scars by sheathing the stick and using carrots only.

Grave concerns over presence of Blackwater in Pakistan

Asif Haroon Raja

A private and secretive outfit named Blackwater under Erik Prince propped up in North Carolina in mid 1990s with its HQ spread over 7000 acres of land. It trains tens of thousands of law enforcement officials a year from the US and other nations. It has grown into a private army and has become so powerful that it can topple a government. It has over 2300 soldiers deployed in nine countries. It maintains a data base of 21000 Special Forces troops and retired police for its use.

Jeremy Scahill revealed in his book “Rise of the world’s most powerful mercenary army”, that Pentagon has made private contractors an integral part of operations. Infamous private security firm Blackwater had been put to use in Iraq as hired killers. Largest ever private contractors totalling 100,000 were employed having a ratio of 1:1 to American soldiers. Paul Bremer initially used security guards of this private firm for his personal protection and subsequently expanded its role to avoid US casualties. Rs one lac was paid to a security guard per day. It changed its name to Xe Worldwide or Xe Services after earning bad name in Iraq where it was extensively employed by US military.

This role is now being performed in Afghanistan particularly after US war casualties started to rise in 2009. Most of clandestine work in Afghanistan is being done by Blackwater. Reportedly, Blackwater/Xe in Afghanistan is training and equipping Afghan troops who then fire on US soldiers during joint operations. Two such incidents took place in 2009 and this practice is aimed at justifying troop surge.

Gordon Duff, a senior editor of Veterans Today has disclosed that the CIA has outsourced its most secret projects to Blackwater, a mercenary group with worst reputation of any firm the US has ever done business with. It plans and executes terrorist acts against civilian targets, military installations, intelligence agencies and resorts to target killings. It maintains contacts with terrorist leaders and organizes revolutionary groups. Disregarding US laws, CIA has expanded the role of private contractors including Blackwater like raids, operations in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, and Somalia and now in Yemen. This was disclosed by four former US military and intelligence officers to ABL News.

There is mounting evidence that Pentagon and CIA are engaged in a war against Pakistan population involving death squads, disappearances and torture. These infamous practices were employed in Vietnam and Al Salvador. One of the chief executives of Blackwater Robert Richer was head of CIA’s Near East and South Asia from1999 to 2004 and ran clandestine operations throughout Middle East and South Asia. Gen Petraeus in August 2009 announced plans to launch an intelligence training centre in coordination with others to train military officers, covert agents and analysts who agree to focus on Afghanistan and Pakistan for up to a decade. In the same month, it was announced that Pentagon was reassigning its 3rd Special Forces Group presently deployed in Africa and Caribbean to focus on Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The CIA also uses credentialed journalists to engage in counter-intelligence. Individuals working as subcontractors to CIA have links to Blackwater CIA-approved operations in targeted countries of the region. Blackwater comes in the guise of contractors, investors, business partners and economic advisers. According to Tim Shorrock, Washington obtained $42 billion annually on private intelligence contractors, up from $17.5 in 2000. It implies 70% intelligence budget going to private companies. Private contractors have been involved in Guantanamo Bay, Bagram and Abu Garib prisons. Blackwater not only serves CIA but also private interests for money. Blackwater elements used extensively by CIA and US military to minimize hazards of combat to US troops have come under intense censure and scrutiny in Iraq and Pakistan due to which their liberty of action has curtailed.

Controversial Blackwater firm which is an extension of US military and CIA is associated with Christian rights and is anti-Islam. Its head Eric Prince is right wing Christian. He has been engaged in uniting conservative Catholics, evangelicals, and neoconservatives in a common Theo-conservative holy war to eliminate Muslims and Islam globally. Blackwater acts as the armed wing of the movement. Blackwater is reportedly running a covert recruitment drive through its website in Pakistan; www.blackwaterUSA.com. It can only be accessed through four company executives’ references. It seeks candidates who can speak Punjabi and Urdu. $ one billion has been allocated for Blackwater which is above law and accountability. Not even home country law is applicable to this outfit. Not a single private contractor involved in gruesome murders has been prosecuted.

Presence of elements of notorious Black water in Islamabad, Peshawar and Quetta and now in Karachi has created ripples in Pakistan and has become a cause of serious concern for all Pakistanis. In Peshawar, they are operating from office of CA11 on Chinar Road, University Town. In-charge of this set up Craig Davis was caught red handed in Peshawar indulging in objectionable activities and having links with Afghanistan. He was identified as an operative of Creative Associates International Inc; a Washington based US firm, one of the wings of Blackwater. Craig was arrested and deported to USA. He and several other deported persons were returned to Pakistan after receiving visas from Pak Embassy in Washington and security cleared by interior ministry and Craig resumed his official activities. Ambassador Hussain Haqqani issued 360 visas to American nationals in one month without consulting Islamabad. This dangerous practice would have continued had the ISI not put its foot down. Consequent to this setback, this suspicious company changed its name and shifted to Karachi.

Several incidents of Americans carrying prohibited bore weapons and grenades roaming the streets of Islamabad during ungodly hours took place. Two incidents happened in Lahore and five Americans were caught under suspicious conditions from Sargodha. Glen Greinwad disclosed that there is ample evidence that the US pays a number of groups within Iran to commit acts of terrorism. If so, there is likelihood that CIA must be indulging in such like activities in Pakistan as well. Blackwater has been actively involved in assassinating pro-government Maliks, clerics and notables in FATA, religious scholars in NWFP, political figures, and target killings in Quetta and in Karachi and in drone attacks. It had a role in organised terrorist attacks against military and police targets in Lahore and Rawalpindi. It provides surveillance and support to terrorist groups such as BLA and BRA in Balochistan and Tehrik-e-Taliban-Pakistan in FATA and Swat.

Reportedly, the US has purchased 16 acres land from CDA in Islamabad. Over $ 1 billion has been earmarked for the expansion of US Embassy in Islamabad, part of which would stretch up to PM Secretariat and Presidency. Offices of Marines, Blackwater security consultants along with residences will be constructed. The new Embassy would be designed to make it bomb proof and to be able to eavesdrop all our high powered secret meetings taking place in parliament, Presidency and PM Secretariat. Rumors are afloat that 1000 to 7000 US Marines together with APCs are planned to be stationed within the confines of new embassy in Islamabad with licence to move about anywhere in Pakistan. 400 houses have been hired in Islamabad by US Embassy.

The intended expanded US Embassy in Islamabad will be the largest in the world. $ 115million have been earmarked for it and made part of Kerry-Lugar Bill (KLB) package for Pakistan. It includes $5 million for Marines quarters, $53.5 million for housing infrastructure; $18 million for general services and office area; $36 million for temporary duty quarters and community staff facilities. All told $4 billion will be required for the ambitious project. $800 million had been allocated for the protection of enlarged and fortified Embassy through private security contractor DynCorp.

Some say it is being made into a military base while others say a cantonment is being built. Expansion of US Embassy in Islamabad is being justified under the plea that greater number of officials would be required to disburse promised $1.5 billion aid per annum from USA and Friends of Pakistan. If this is the criteria, India with which USA has strategic cooperation in defence and economic fields which is twenty times more in volume, USA should need half of New Delhi to accommodate coordinating and disbursement staff. US Ambassador has sought sanction for 800 vehicles which will be in addition to existing fleet of 1100 private cars in use by Embassy staff in Islamabad. It is said that the fortified US Embassy close to PM secretariat will counter balance Rawalpindi based 111 Brigade. Under the garb of KLB, which is a step towards neo-colonisation of Pakistan, it is intended to enhance presence of US military contractors, immune from prosecution.

The US has purchased a large chunk of land in Sihala and has seemingly established a secret military training camp adjacent to police academy just a few km away from Islamabad and from Kahuta. It is being used to recruit retired army personnel preferably ex SSG at handsome salaries to work for US military. Monthly salaries range from $200 to $1200. Commandant of the Academy or any other person belonging to law enforcing agency could not enter the prohibited area. Sensitive instruments were implanted to monitor KRL and to gain intelligence on nuclear assets. It has now come to light that this unchecked facility was given to USA in 2003 under an unwritten agreement by Gen Musharraf to train the police.

A security firm has a warehouse in Islamabad which was involved in illegal arm trade. The warehouse, Kestral Logistics, worked as a sub contractor of Xe World. It imported heavy arms and ammunition for US Company for its illicit operation in Pakistan. The US rejected news on warehouse for storing arms. US Ambassador Anne Patterson and Richard Holbrooke too denied presence of Blackwater.

In 2006, Pakistan had signed an agreement with the US authorising Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) to enter Pakistan to hunt Osama bin Laden. At that time Gen McChrystal was head of JSOC. It was learnt in 2008 that the US had acquired huge chunk of land near Tarbela with a view to build a military base. Some reports say that 300 US military advisers are lodged in Tarbela and drones are also controlled from there. US Special Forces have been conducting joint exercises with our commandoes apart from imparting advanced training.

US military trainers favour tactics adopted by JSOC and are imparting training to Frontier Corps in Fort Balhissar Peshawar and in Warsak. On 23 February 2009, Pentagon revealed that over 70 American military advisers had been secretly working in Pakistan since long. It has now transpired that 100-member strong Special Forces unit is stationed in NWFP since 2008 to train FC in counter terrorism. Three US trainers died in a suicide attack in Lower Dir on 3 February 2010. TTP claimed responsibility and claimed that the killed foreigners belonged to Xe Worldwide.

Reportedly, US opened a JSOC in Balochistan where Marines are coming in via Islamabad. Marines as well as heavy contingent of Blackwater elements to the tune of 11000 have also been spotted in Balochistan, who in collaboration with BLA and BRA are mostly carrying out target killings. Four air bases in Balochistan had been leased to US military in September 2001 and these bases at Jacobabad, Pasni, Dalbaldin and Shamsi are still in their use. It is now an open secret that Shamsi airbase is under use by US drones where Blackwater was hired for loading hellfire missiles and 500 lbs laser guided bombs on Predators. Similar job is being performed at Jalalabad air base to strike targets in Pakistan. In the wake of intense pressure from people of Pakistan, CIA terminated the contract of terrorist group Blackwater Worldwide employed at Shamsi Base but is still using it in Balochistan under the name of Xe Services.

Blackwater has now spread its tentacles to Karachi under a different name. It has hired seven private houses in defence area and acquired hundreds of acres of land near Pataro in Sindh to launch agricultural research institute. There were reports of secret construction of operational facilities in Gharo in Sindh to serve as a base for 200 Marines and that sizeable numbers of American armoured carriers had arrived at Port Qasim, with 3000 Hummvies awaiting dispatch.

Jeremy Scahill has revealed about a covert forward operation base run by JSOC in Karachi in which Blackwater is actively involved in planning and executing target assassination of suspected Taliban and Al-Qaeda. The outfit also helps in gathering intelligence and in drone attacks. Reportedly the militant wing of MQM has joined hands with Blackwater and former is making full use of it to serve its political ends.

Seymour M. Hersh suggested that it is easier and safer to remove separately stored arming system of nuclear systems from the soil of Pakistan. US intelligence agencies in various guises like Xe worldwide are reportedly developing techniques to disable arming system. Blackwater has begun to make diagrammatical drawings and video films of nuclear installations as well as available routes to help execute US plan to hijack nukes in one go.

While every second Pakistani is expressing its grave concern over presence of Blackwater, and even Robert Gates admitted its presence, ironically the Interior Minister is adamant that there is none and wants documentary proof. It is generally believed that while Musharraf regime allowed setting up of DynCorp in Islamabad, Hussain Haqqani and Rehman Malik are instrumental in facilitating entry of Blackwater in Pakistan.

The writer is a retired Brig and a freelance defence and political analyst. Email:asifharoon7751@yahoo.com